The Oklahoma Sooners are fighting to secure their spot in an NCAA Tournament that is becoming more competitive by the day. With March Madness just around the corner, the Sooners find themselves as a bubble team, meaning their path to the tournament is uncertain but promising. So, what are their odds, and how far can they go? Let’s break it all down.
What Are the Oklahoma Sooners’ Odds of Making March Madness?
The Oklahoma Sooners’ odds of making the NCAA Tournament look solid, but they’re not a shoo-in by any means. Here’s a breakdown of their chances:
According to FanDuel, the Sooners are listed at -250 to make the tournament, the second-best odds among bubble teams. This means oddsmakers believe Oklahoma is more likely than not to secure a spot in March Madness. For comparison, Georgia leads bubble teams with -440 odds, while other teams like San Diego State, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh trail behind.
If you’re skeptical about Oklahoma’s chances, the odds of them missing the tournament are set at +185, reflecting the uncertainty that comes with being on the bubble.
Bracketology Projections
Bracketology experts are optimistic about Oklahoma’s chances:
- 93.8% chance to make the tournament.
- 93.5% chance to earn an at-large bid.
- A slim 0.3% chance to win an automatic bid by claiming the conference championship.
Joe Lunardi’s latest ESPN Bracketology projects the Sooners as a 9th or 10th seed, narrowly avoiding the play-in games. This places them among the last four teams to earn a first-round bye, highlighting just how tight the competition is for bubble teams.
Breaking Down the Sooners’ Chances: Key Factors
Under head coach Porter Moser, Oklahoma has shown flashes of brilliance this season. Moser’s leadership has helped the team remain competitive against tough opponents, but inconsistency has been a recurring issue.
Compared to other bubble teams like Georgia, San Diego State, and Vanderbilt, the Sooners have a slight edge in odds but are far from a lock. Their ability to stand out will depend on maintaining strong performances in high-stakes games.
Conference Play and SEC Transition
This season marks Oklahoma’s first in the SEC, and the transition hasn’t been easy. The Sooners are tied with teams like Arkansas and Georgia at +25000 odds to win the SEC regular-season championship, reflecting their uphill battle in a highly competitive conference.
Strong conference play will be critical for Oklahoma to solidify its tournament bid. With challenging matchups ahead, every win matters.
How Far Can the Sooners Go in March Madness?
Once the Sooners make it to the NCAA Tournament, the real challenge begins. Here’s what their potential journey could look like:
Tournament Seed Projections
The Sooners are most likely to earn a #9 seed, with a 25.2% chance of landing in that spot. Lower seeds often face tougher opponents in the early rounds, making Oklahoma’s path to a deep tournament run more difficult.
Deep Run Possibilities
While Oklahoma’s odds of making a deep run are slim, they’re not impossible:
- +8500 odds to make the Final Four, translating to a 0.9% chance.
- +25000 odds to win the national championship, or a 0.1% chance.
These odds place Oklahoma alongside teams like Texas, Ohio State, and Villanova, all of whom are considered long shots. While a championship run is unlikely, March Madness is known for its surprises, and anything can happen.
The Sooners Need to Step Up
The Oklahoma Sooners have a 93.8% chance of making the NCAA Tournament, according to bracketology projections, and are listed at -250 odds by FanDuel to earn a spot. However, their inconsistent performances and stiff competition from other bubble teams make their path to March Madness anything but guaranteed.
For Sooners fans, there’s reason to be optimistic, but the team will need to step up in the coming weeks to secure their place in the Big Dance. Can they rise to the occasion? Only time will tell.
